Daily Rate Lock Advisory

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium

Neutral

Geopolitical/Financial Issues

Today has nothing of importance scheduled, the only day of the week without at least one item. There were some mixed economic and inflation headlines from overseas, but none of them stand out as a good reason for the overnight selling that extended into this morning’s session. The weakness contradicts expectations for a bond rally going into the government shutdown deadline this Saturday. Such a rally would likely improve mortgage rates noticeably. After Friday’s gains, it looked as if the trend had already started. There still is time for a reversal, although we are a bit less optimistic this morning.

High

Unknown

None

The rest of the week has six monthly and quarterly economic reports that have the potential to affect rates. There are also a couple of Treasury auctions that may come into play during afternoon hours midweek and some Fed speeches that traders will watch.

Medium

Unknown

Consumer Confidence Index

September's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will kick-off this week’s activities at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow morning. This Conference Board index gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show a decline in confidence from August's reading, meaning surveyed consumers were not as optimistic about their own financial situations as they were last month. Rising confidence is thought to raise the possibility consumers will make a large purchase in the near future. Because consumer spending makes up almost 70% of the U.S. economy, good news for rates would be a large decline. Analysts are calling for a reading of approximately 105.3, down from August's 106.1. The smaller the reading, the better the news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Low

Unknown

New Home Sales

Tomorrow's second piece of data will be August's New Home Sales report. The Commerce Department is expected to say at 10:00 AM ET that sales of newly constructed homes fell last month. This report will likely not have a noticeable impact on mortgage rates unless it differs greatly from forecasts. It is the week's least important report in terms of potential impact on mortgage rates, partly because it covers only the small portion of all homes sales that last week's Existing Home Sales report did not.

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Unknown

none

Overall, the most active day for rates may be Friday or today, but Wednesday is expected to have a noticeable move also. No day stands out as a clear candidate for calmest day since there is so much scheduled. We can expect to see an active week for rates, so keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

Rate Lock Advisory

Mortgage Rate Trend

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Geopolitical/Financial Issues

None

Consumer Confidence Index

New Home Sales

none

Float / Lock Recommendation