Rate Lock Advisory

Monday, October 25th

Monday’s bond market has opened in positive territory, extending Friday’s late gains. Stocks are starting the week with minor gains, pushing the Dow up 43 points and the Nasdaq up 28 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32 (1.63%), which with Friday’s afternoon strength should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.

2/32

Bonds

30 yr - 1.63%

43

Dow

35,720

28

NASDAQ

15,118

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Low

Neutral

None

There is nothing of importance scheduled for today, the only day of the week without something relevant to mortgage rates. The rest of the week brings us seven monthly and quarterly economic reports that may influence mortgage rates, in addition to a couple of Treasury auctions that have the potential to do so also.

Medium

Unknown

Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board)

October's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will start this week’s activities at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This Conference Board index helps us gauge consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show a small decline from last month's 109.3 reading. That would mean surveyed consumers were less optimistic about their own financial and employment situations as they were last month. Good news for the bond market would be a noticeable decline because waning confidence usually translates to weaker consumer spending levels, which makes up over two-thirds of our economy. Current forecasts are showing a reading of 109.0. The lower the reading, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.

Low

Unknown

New Home Sales

September's New Home Sales data will also be posted at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow morning. This Commerce Department report covers the small percentage of home sales that last week's Existing Home Sales report didn't include. Forecasts show an increase in sales of newly constructed homes, but I don't see this report having much of an impact on mortgage rates unless it shows a significant variance from forecasts.

---

Unknown

None

Overall, Thursday is a good candidate for most important day for rates due to the initial GDP reading, but several days may see noticeable movement. The calmest day could end up being tomorrow. We should see rates move quite a bit this week with intraday revisions multiple days. If still floating an interest rate, and closing in the near future, it would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.


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